◆ OBSERVED / CITY OF TORONTO2025 · ONE COUNTER
3,524 / dayAverage cyclist passages at the permanent Bloor counter west of Huron Street. This is a scale cue, not unique riders, corridor trips, or a removal effect.
Read the City source ↗SCROLL TO REVEAL01 / 03
POLICY
Survey-style reaction from 100 persona agents, not a forecast.
DEMO REPLAY ACTIVE/ILLUSTRATIVE SAMPLE
PEOPLE WHO CHANGED
Map data: City of Toronto · © OpenStreetMap contributors · TTC GTFS · the people are synthetic
ONE EVENT LOG
What the people in this run did.
Choose a changed decision to follow its committed events on the map.
CHANGE AN ASSUMPTION · VERSIONED RERUN
01 / INSIDE THE SIMULATIONFollow a choice.
Follow a choice.
Challenge the assumption.
This is the prepared TTC simulation replay (synthetic, separate from the 100 agents). Select a person to see their decisions, inspect supporting evidence, then edit an assumption and rerun. The map above shows Bathurst–Spadina context; this inspector still uses its earlier synthetic district. Its own replay and charts share one event trace.
The inspector is a deterministic, rule-based prototype. Its personas and choices are synthetic. A human note entered here belongs to this browser session; it is not a Papiers annotation unless separately retrieved and verified.
02 / A STREET IN QUESTIONTORONTO · BATHURST TO SPADINA
One street.
Four possible paths.
A protected cycle track connects a person to more than a route. Compare the prepared simulation replay (synthetic, separate from the 100 agents), then explore other possible responses. The street visuals are schematic; the event ledger and charts use recorded choices.
Mapped Bloor sectionOBSERVED STREETS / SYNTHETIC RESULTS
BLOOR STREET WESTHYPOTHETICAL REMOVAL
Bathurst · Bloor · Spadina City of Toronto · © OpenStreetMap contributors
STREET SECTION / COMPARE THE LAYOUT02 / 02
BLOOR STREET WEST / SCHEMATIC SECTIONSTEADY-STATE ILLUSTRATION · NOT AN ENGINEERING PLAN
EXPLORE AN ALTERNATIVE
What else could happen?
These selectable branches show additional mechanisms that are not choices in the seeded run. The recorded decisions and their event paths are directly below.
POSSIBLE RESPONSES / SELECT ONE
Illustrative route choice · not a measured probability or forecast
LESS-CONFIDENT CYCLISTILLUSTRATIVE BRANCH
A trip changes shape.
WHAT TO VERIFY
PAIRED WORLD
What the people in this run did.
Choose a changed decision to follow its committed events.
◇ RESEARCH / RETAIL CONTEXT2015–17 · MADISON–MONTROSE
A shop is not a shortcut.Visitor mode and merchant surveys show why arrival mix matters. Bloor and the Danforth comparison both improved after installation; those data cannot predict sales after removal.
Inspect the retail study ↗! DECISION GAPSNOT ESTIMABLE HERE
What remains unknown.Local removal cost, injuries, emissions and actual shop margin need a street design, exposure and transaction data. The City’s multi-corridor cost estimate is not a Bloor-segment estimate.
See assumptions & sources ↗FROM A STREET TO A SYSTEMTrace where the effects could travel.
THE REPORT · ONE EVENT LOG
What changed.
—
INSIDE THE CASCADE
One decision.
Many futures.
Choose a connected sector to inspect its illustrative comparison and evidence boundary.
CONNECTED SYSTEMSTTC FARE / UTSC DISTRICT
01 / INPUTMobility−9% RIDES
02 / REACHAccess−6% TRIPS
03 / ACTIVITYLocal shops−3% VISITS
04 / PEOPLEHouseholds+12% SPEND
05 / SYSTEMPublic realm+6% RECEIPTS
✳ TRACE A CONNECTIONILLUSTRATIVE RUN · NOT A FORECAST
01 / MOBILITY● ACTIVE SECTOR
↗
A different route through the city.
People reconsider a trip when the cost of reaching it changes. Some keep riding, some switch modes, and others stay home.
SAMPLE RIDES / 4 PERIODSBASELINE POLICY
Illustrative chart values will appear here.
EVIDENCE STATUS
Observed Toronto context; response size is an illustrative assumption.
FIVE CHARTS · 4 MODELLED PERIODS BASELINE WITH POLICYOPEN ONE FOR DETAIL ↗
SCENARIO OUTPUTS / PREPARED REPLAY
Every signal in view.
Five connected sectors, one illustrative comparison. Choose any chart to inspect its mechanism and evidence boundary.
WE DON'T GUESSNot estimable from this run
Every number is summed from recorded events in this run · synthetic people, real map · not a forecast
03 / THE PEOPLE BEHIND THE MODELTest the agent.
Test the agent.
Then trust the question.
Steven's research loop compares synthetic persona answers with a held-out survey check set. Every trial and the human decision are recorded. This measures survey-answer likeness, not whether a Toronto policy prediction is correct.
RESEARCH LOG / TWIN-2K-500LOADING
Loading the recorded trials…
EARLIER PERSONA PROTOTYPE
One fare proposal. Different lived context.
Loading saved agent reactions…
These saved reactions are from synthetic US persona cards with assigned transit contexts. They are separate from the TTC city's seeded actors and are not Toronto survey data, observed behaviour, or inputs to its event trace. Their near-uniform opposition motivated the later persona evaluation.
CHANGE ONE THING.
WATCH EVERYTHING ELSE MOVE.
WATCH EVERYTHING ELSE MOVE.
A research prototype for testing assumptions and trade-offs. Not a real-world prediction.
ASK ANOTHER QUESTION ↗